Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe: ‘proper soft’ ground rains on Japan’s parade

The first afternoon of this year’s Arc meeting unfolded in bright sunshine on Saturday, but the clods of turf being kicked up in the Group One Prix du Cadran were a sign of the significant rain that had fallen since Friday evening. This changes the shape and narrative of Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

“Proper soft and it’s going to take a lot of getting,” was the verdict of Dylan Browne McMonagle after his win on Tennessee Stud in the opening Prix Chaudenay. That was echoed by Tom Marquand, the Cadran winner aboard George Scott’s Caballo De Mar. “It’s very soft but not heavy,” he said. “It would be an injustice to call it heavy because they’ve done a really good job of having us on the nicest part of the track and tomorrow it will open out again to freshen it up, but it’s testing.”

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Related: Raiders of the Arc: Japan hopes to end elusive 50-year quest in Paris

For good or ill, the prospects of all 17 runners have been affected by the abrupt softening of the ground, but the most obvious losers are the three runners from Japan, bidding to succeed where 33 compatriots have failed over the past 56 years.

A week ago, Byzantine Dream, Alohi Alii and Croix Du Nord were priced up between 8-1 and 16-1, the good-to-soft ground had survived well beyond its usual mid-September cut-off point and there was even talk of Byzantine Dream edging towards the top of the market as punters latched on to the booking of Oisin Murphy to ride.

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The three horses were heading into the Arc off the back of a win in a recognised trial, an unprecedented degree of strength in depth for a Japanese challenge. But Thursday’s draw for starting positions left Byzantine Dream and Croix Du Nord marooned in wide stalls and the rain has added to the scale of their task. All three are now available at 14-1 or bigger.

That does not mean they can not win, but they will go to post with their chance significantly reduced. Japanese racing is conducted almost exclusively on good ground or faster so the stallions and mares in its breeding programme are fast-ground horses. It normally requires a career-best performance to win an Arc and the trio are unlikely to run up to their very best form on the rain-softened ground or from a wide stall.

The balance has tipped appreciably towards the Europeans and runners from France, Ireland and England now fill the top six slots in the betting for what remains an unusually competitive renewal of the continent’s showpiece event.

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Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk, unbeaten in four starts this season including the Oaks and Irish Oaks, is a narrow favourite from the Prix Vermeille winner, Aventure, who was a length and a quarter behind Bluestocking in second 12 months ago.

Sosie, the beaten favourite when fourth last year, is a 9-1 shot to give André Fabre a record-extending ninth Arc, while Daryz, a close second to Croix Du Nord over 10 furlongs here in their trial last month, is a 12-1 chance alongside Kalapana, the King George runner-up, and another Fabre-trained runner, Cualificar.

All six have plenty to recommend them, but with the odd question about their chance too. Minnie Hauk has a tricky draw against the rail in stall one, which has not housed the Arc winner since 2008, while Aventure won a Vermeille when the favourite, Whirl, clearly failed to run anywhere close to form. Kalapana was a long way short of her King George form in her Arc warm-up at Kempton last month and Sosie has not obviously improved as a four-year-old .

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That leaves Daryz and Cualificar as interesting options, not least because they are also the most likely contenders to take a big step forward on the day that matters most.

Uttoxeter: 1.40 Loriko 2.15 Fortune De Mer 2.48 Dexter 3.25 Jazz De Cotte 4.00 Alnilam 4.35 Roger Pol 5.10 Gaelic Park 5.40 Diesel Line (nap).

Kelso: 1.58 Kelvin Forlonge 2.33 Fostered Phil 3.13 Triple Crown Ted 3.43 Saint Arvans 4.18 Malystic (nb) 4.53 Aquitaine Boy.

Daryz, who was probably unlucky not to beat Croix Du Nord last time out, has just six runs in the book and while he is stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time, he is a product of the Aga Khan’s breeding operation and all but certain to appreciate the extra two furlongs.

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Cualificar (3.05) is almost equally unexposed at 12 furlongs, having made his debut at the full Arc trip only last month when he was successful in the Prix Niel. His trainer’s record in the race speaks for itself – Fabre has won twice as many Arcs as any other trainer in its 105-year history – and he has plotted a careful path towards Longchamp with his latest three-year-old contender.

Cualificar was a comfortable winner of the Prix Niel – the launch-pad for Fabre’s six previous three-year-old Arc winners – and while he has something to find with Minnie Hauk and Aventure on ratings looks almost certain to improve significantly on that form.

William Buick will also have plenty of options from an ideal draw in stall eight and at around 12-1 with British bookmakers, Cualificar is an excellent bet to give France’s greatest trainer yet another win in his country’s most famous race.