1
|
Avalanche
|
99.9% | Everything is starting to click for the Avalanche, and perhaps most importantly, the goaltending is picking up. Since Feb. 1, Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood have combined to save 7.56 goals above average while posting a .919 save percentage. What was once a weakness has become a strength.
|
3
|
41-25-3
|
2
|
Hurricanes
|
99.9% | The Hurricanes have essentially secured second place in the Metro thanks to their seven-game winning streak, and the defense has been leading the way. Carolina hasn’t allowed more than two goals since March 1, and it hasn’t allowed more than three goals since Feb. 25. The other end of the ice should be getting a boost with Andrei Svechnikov returning from injury soon.
|
5
|
41-22-4
|
3
|
Jets
|
100% | As I’ve noted before, winning the Central is imperative for the Jets, and they have that all but sealed up now. Winnipeg did also just score an impressive 4-1 win over Dallas on home ice last weekend. That gave anyone doubting the Jets’ ability to beat the division’s other two heavy hitters a little pause.
|
2
|
47-18-4
|
4
|
Stars
|
100% | The Stars’ are undoubtedly Stanley Cup contenders, and they might be my pick to win it all. However, if I could play devil’s advocate, I would say their five-on-five game has dipped lately. Since Feb. 1, Dallas has an expected goals share of 47.4% and an expected goal differential of roughly minus-3. That’s not a big enough sample size for real concern, but it’s a trend worth watching.
|
3
|
43-21-3
|
5
|
Capitals
|
100% | The Presidents’ Trophy race is down to the Capitals and the Jets, which is not a sentence I expected to type on opening night. The only question left for Washington, at least as far as the regular season is concerned, is whether Alex Ovechkin can break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record. He needs eight goals in the final 15 games.
|
3
|
45-15-8
|
6
|
Panthers
|
99.9% | The Panthers will get the chance to go back-to-back, but the path to repeating might be much more difficult depending upon where they finish in the standings. Florida’s lead in the Atlantic is down to two points, and it will be without a few key players for the remainder of the regular season. Winning the division means the difference between playing a team like the Senators or facing another Cup contender in the first round.
|
3
|
41-24-3
|
7
|
Lightning
|
99.7% | One of the teams chasing the Panthers is the Lightning. Given how Andrei Vasilevskiy has played lately, Tampa is probably the scariest team in the Atlantic right now. It’s already tough enough to keep up with the Lightning offensively, but when Vasilevskiy is anywhere near his peak, that’s when you get the recipe for back-to-back championship runs. The Bolts are the team to beat in this division as things stand today.
|
2
|
39-23-5
|
8
|
Maple Leafs
|
99.8% | Toronto is the third team in the mix in the Atlantic, and if I could admit some bias, I do want to see the Leafs finish in first place. That’s because it would set up a Battle of Florida in the first round. Will I get my wish? Maybe if the Maple Leafs can take advantage of a relatively favorable schedule to close out March.
|
—
|
41-24-3
|
9
|
Golden Knights
|
99.9% | In order for the Golden Knights to go on a deep playoff run, their performance without Jack Eichel on the ice must improve. With Eichel in the game at five-on-five, Vegas has a plus-23 goal differential. Without him, that number tumbles to minus-8. While the expected goals numbers remain roughly the same, that dip in actual results is concerning, especially looking ahead to the postseason.
|
3
|
39-20-8
|
10
|
Senators
|
95.6% | A six-game winning streak is all it took for the Senators to separate themselves from the rest of the also-rans in the East wild card race. Now it looks like Ottawa will reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017. It certainly helps that Dylan Cozens has come in and made an immediate impact with four points in five games.
|
4
|
36-26-5
|
11
|
Kings
|
99.4% | For the fourth straight season, the Kings are on a collision course with the Oilers. Once again, they have an elite defense, but the question is whether they can score their way out of a paper bag. Twenty-one goals in nine games this month isn’t an encouraging sign.
|
1
|
36-21-9
|
12
|
Oilers
|
99.2% | I’ve been very critical of the Oilers’ depth (or lack thereof), but it isn’t necessarily a fatal flaw because of who’s at the top of their lineup. Leon Draisaitl now has an 18-game point streak that extends back to Jan. 27. In that span, he has 14 goals and 13 assists. The depth remains a concern for Edmonton, but Drasaitl and Connor McDavid can drag this team through multiple rounds.
|
—
|
40-24-4
|
13
|
Devils
|
96.5% | Timo Time has come just in time for the Devils. A Jack Hughes-less New Jersey was flirting with falling back into the wild card race before winning four of its last five games. Meier, who was ice cold through the first two months of the calendar year, has put together a four-game point streak with three goals and one assist.
|
—
|
37-26-6
|
14
|
Blues
|
44.4% | I’m a little surprised this number isn’t higher because the Blues are playing good hockey. Since Jim Montgomery took over, St. Louis is 25-16-6 with a 52.2% expected goals share at five-on-five. Jordan Kyrou is red hot, Dylan Holloway is flourishing and the team is playing excellent defense.
|
2
|
34-28-7
|
15
|
Wild
|
91.7% | Barring a shocking collapse, the Wild are going to the playoffs, but they haven’t cemented that up yet. Minnesota is 7-8-1 since Feb. 1, and its 31 goals in that span are dead last in the NHL. Injuries have decimated the Wild all season, and they are sputtering to the finish line. Even if Minnesota does get in, it will be badly outmatched in the first round.
|
4
|
39-25-5
|
16
|
Canadiens
|
31.2 % | The Canadiens are so much fun. Their third-period comeback against the Senators on Tuesday made me want playoff hockey back in the Bell Centre, and Lane Huston is a future superstar. Montreal still has work to do in order to lock up a wild card spot, and the underlying profile is troublesome, but this group never seems to run out of magic.
|
2
|
33-27-7
|
17
|
Canucks
|
34.7% | The Canucks and Blues are jockeying for that final wild card spot in the West, and those two just happen to play one another on Thursday night. Games don’t get any bigger than that, and players like Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser may have found a spark just in time for Vancouver’s biggest tilt of the season so far.
|
3
|
32-25-11
|
18
|
Hockey Club
|
12.9% | This type of season is what Utah needed. The young core got out of a bad situation in Arizona, and it’s playing meaningful games down the stretch. The problem here is that the playoff math is not in Utah’s favor. Regardless of what happens, this franchise is set up for a big summer and a lot of excitement in 2025-26.
|
4
|
30-27-11
|
19
|
Flames
|
17.8% | Despite having the 12th-ranked goal differential in the West (minus-24), the Flames are on the doorstep of the playoffs. That’s probably due to their 14-2-11 record in one-goal games. Calgary just picks up points in close games, and it has kept the team in the race. The problem for the Flames is that they need to start picking up two points at a time more often.
|
2
|
31-25-11
|
20
|
Rangers
|
35.1% | Just when you think the Rangers might have a shot to get in and benefit from a fresh start, they drop a 13-shot clunker against the Flames at home. The fact that the chances are even this high is a small miracle. At this point, New York needs Igor Shesterkin to go unconscious down the home stretch, which is within the realm of possibility.
|
1
|
33-30-6
|
21
|
Blue Jackets
|
7.1% | Unfortunately, the Blue Jackets look like they’re finally running out of steam. Columbus has one goal in its last three games, and it’s been shutout three times in March. The Blue Jackets were out ahead of their skis for most of the season, and regression has reared its ugly head at the worst possible time. The path only gets narrower with a very difficult remaining schedule.
|
6
|
31-28-8
|
22
|
Islanders
|
26.9% | Surely the Islanders won’t do this again, right? They won’t hang around the playoff race and sneak in over the last few weeks? They can’t once again be rewarded for their mediocrity? I’ve seen this movie before, and I’m not about to count the Isles out in the East because all they do is find a way into the postseason.
|
2
|
31-28-8
|
23
|
Red Wings
|
7.3% | Lucas Raymond has one goal in his last 12 games, and he’s hit the skids right as the Red Wings are trying to end their playoff drought. Detroit may only be three points out of a playoff spot, but it’s behind four other teams in terms of point percentage. That’s a steep hill to climb with so little hockey left.
|
6
|
32-30-6
|
24
|
Ducks
|
0.1% | Anaheim almost came kind of close to making things interesting this season. On the one hand, that’s a big improvement over recent years. On the other, it’s probably a bad sign that being nowhere near a playoff spot with 14 games left is an improvement. Should be a fascinating offseason.
|
1
|
29-31-8
|
25
|
Penguins
|
0.0% | As much of a disaster as this season has been for the Penguins, I will say that GM Kyle Dubas made the most out of it by loading up on draft capital. If he manages the next year or two well, Pittsburgh can give Sidney Crosby another swing at a Stanley Cup, and that should be the goal.
|
5
|
28-32-10
|
26
|
Sabres
|
0.0% | The Sabres’ playoff drought will hit 14 years. I honestly don’t know how fans in Buffalo do it anymore. The NHL has so much fake parity that a franchise should be able to luck its way into the playoffs at least once every decade. Yet, here the Sabres are.
|
3
|
27-33-6
|
27
|
Bruins
|
0.9% | In a way, this might be good for the Bruins. Instead of trying to hold onto a championship window that was closing rapidly, this mess might force them into an actual rebuild of some kind. Let David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and perhaps Jeremy Swayman be the cornerstone pieces as you revamp the rest of the lineup.
|
2
|
30-30-9
|
28
|
Kraken
|
0.0 % | The first year of the Dan Bylsma tenure in Seattle hasn’t exactly been a rousing success. To be fair, the lack of success may be more of a roster problem than a coaching one. Regardless, the Kraken will have to go back to the drawing board in the offseason.
|
1
|
30-35-5
|
29
|
Predators
|
0.0% | There was always going to be risk involved when the Predators dropped a dump truck of money on three veteran players and signed their veteran goalie to a massive contract extension. I doubt anyone thought it would be this bad. Nashville better hope this was a worst-case outlier and not an indication of the next 3-5 seasons.
|
1
|
25-34-8
|
30
|
Flyers
|
0.0% | The Flyers have been hard to watch at times this season, but they have Matvei Michkov. He is very easy to watch, and he will be an electrifying player for a long time. That, plus the high draft pick that will come out of it, made the 2024-25 season worth it for Philly.
|
4
|
28-33-8
|
31
|
Sharks
|
0.0% | As someone who has probably watched too much Sharks hockey, I think now is the time for fans to jump on the bandwagon. Don’t get me wrong. This is not a good team — at least not yet — but the young talent in San Jose has shown a boatload of potential.
|
1
|
18-41-9
|
32
|
Blackhawks
|
0.0% | I’m sure the Blackhawks would love another No. 1 pick, but they have paid a high price to be down here. Chicago has shown no improvement, and Connor Bedard has been trying to breathe some life into this roster with no luck. The Hawks don’t even look close to being a competitive team.
|
1
|
20-39-9
|
