NBA offseason survey: Best and worst moves, LeBron’s future and Finals picks

A new NBA season is nearly here. Multiple teams will hold media day Tuesday ahead of the start of the regular season next month, with the entire league opening up business by next week.

So, with the offseason basically behind us (save a couple of lengthy restricted free agent standoffs), let’s dive into how league insiders viewed the offseason’s most impactful trades and signings — and how the 2025-26 campaign will unfold over the next several months.

Here’s our look at which teams did the best — and worst — this offseason, along with determining who the best players are both now and in the future (as well as who is leading the way for the Americans), plus who will ultimately be holding the Larry O’Brien trophy next June, through the eyes of 20 coaches, scouts and executives we polled for their thoughts on all of the above and more.

Who will be the MVP?

Nikola Jokic: 7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 5
Luka Doncic: 4
Victor Wembanyama: 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1
Anthony Edwards: 1

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that after the Denver Nuggets‘ big man and the Oklahoma City Thunder‘s MVP guard came in first and second each of the past two years, they would be atop this grouping — and by a narrow margin.

“[Jokic is] the best player, and they’ll be better,” said a West scout.

For those voting for Doncic, the expectation is that with health and a full season with the Los Angeles Lakers after his shocking midseason trade, there’s no reason that this shouldn’t be a three-player race.

“He’s in shape,” an East executive said, “and will be motivated.”

Who is the best player right now?

Nikola Jokic: 19
Luka Doncic: 1

While there has been a nip-and-tuck battle for MVP between Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander over the past few seasons — and our survey projects another — there was little debate about who the single best NBA player is at the moment. That would be Jokic, as the Thunder star and reigning MVP didn’t receive any votes, and only a stray one for Doncic separated Jokic from becoming the first unanimous selection for this honor across the seven years the survey has been conducted.

For just about every voter, there was very little hesitation in picking Jokic before moving on to the next question — a nod more to his remarkable run than a slight at Gilgeous-Alexander or anyone else.

“As long as he’s walking and breathing,” one East executive said of the Serbian superstar, “it should be him.”

While Jokic wasn’t a unanimous choice, he is the first player to be selected for a third time, edging Antetokounmpo’s top finishes in 2021 and 2022.

Who will be the best player in 2030?

Victor Wembanyama: 16
Luka Doncic: 2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 1
Jayson Tatum: 1

For consecutive years, Wembanyama was the runaway winner in this category, with the only real question being how long that streak continues. While Gilgeous-Alexander and Doncic also picked up votes, the most interesting one was for Tatum, who obviously will miss this entire season after tearing his right Achilles in May.

“There’s no one that has that shot profile,” a Western Conference assistant said of Tatum. “He’s what everyone wishes they have: A 6-foot-10 guy who shoots 3s, gets to the rim and gets fouled.”

Who is the best American player right now?

Stephen Curry: 11
Anthony Edwards: 8
Donovan Mitchell: 1

Before Tatum’s injury, this question wouldn’t have been on the survey at all, given the Boston Celtics superstar wing was coming off First-Team All-NBA honors for a fourth consecutive season and won the NBA title a year ago. But with Tatum out of the mix, the honor instead was given to Curry, despite him being 37 years old and entering his 17th NBA season.

“He’s still the guy who scares me most,” an Eastern Conference scout said of Curry.

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Who will be the best American player in five years?

Anthony Edwards: 11
Cooper Flagg: 5
Jayson Tatum: 2
Paolo Banchero: 1
Jalen Williams: 1

Having just turned 24 and coming off winning a gold medal last summer with Team USA and back-to-back trips to the Western Conference finals with the Minnesota Timberwolves, Edwards is the logical choice to lead this vote.

“I don’t see anyone else catching him by then,” a Western Conference scout said. “And it’s unfair to Cooper to put that on him before playing in one NBA game. So, it’s Ant until proven otherwise.”

There were, however, several people willing to bet on Flagg after he became the No. 1 pick by the Mavericks in June. “He can do everything,” an East executive said.

Who will be Rookie of the Year?

Cooper Flagg: 19
Kon Knueppel: 1

Not surprisingly, Flagg ran away from the field as one of the most anticipated prospects to come into the NBA in recent memory, possibly trailing only Wembanyama in that category.

The only reason this vote wasn’t unanimous was because of a Western Conference assistant coach instead giving the nod to Flagg’s former Duke teammate, Knuppel, to have a strong debut season with the Charlotte Hornets.

“He’ll be on a bad team, will have the ball in his hands and put up numbers,” the coach said.

Who will be the best player from the class of 2025 … in five years?

Cooper Flagg: 18
Dylan Harper: 1
Ace Bailey: 1

Flagg again dominated this question, though former Rutgers teammates Harper and Bailey each received a single vote.

“As a point guard landing with Victor,” a Western Conference scout said of Harper, “there’s a clear path to success. If Cooper went to a bad team, he’d be the obvious answer. But his landing spot could cause him to develop differently.”

“He reminds me a lot of Anthony Edwards [entering the league],” an East executive said of Bailey. “Super talented, but a lot of questions. But the ease with which he creates shots at his size is something you can’t teach.”

Where will LeBron James be at the start of the 2026-27 season?

Los Angeles Lakers: 7
Retired: 5
Cleveland Cavaliers: 4
Golden State Warriors: 2
Dallas Mavericks: 1
Miami Heat: 1

As James enters his 23rd NBA season, and after the drama that played out after he opted into his contract this summer, there has been plenty of speculation about his future. There was far from any sort of consensus among the respondents here, however, with one Eastern Conference scout summing up the general sentiment well.

“If I was taking the Lakers or the field,” they said, “I’d take the field. But I’ll take the Lakers over any specific team, especially given they are the one with a clear path to pay him.”

There also, though, were a few who thought this year will be James’ final trip around The Association. “It just feels like it’s where it’s going to end,” a Western Conference scout said.

Which team had the best offseason?

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Atlanta Hawks: 7
Denver Nuggets: 4
Houston Rockets: 3
Oklahoma City Thunder: 2
Orlando Magic: 2
LA Clippers: 1
Los Angeles Lakers: 1

After largely being an afterthought in NBA circles the past several years since making the 2021 East finals, the Hawks earned plenty of praise for their busy offseason. Atlanta traded for Kristaps Porzingis, signed Nickiel Alexander-Walker and landed one of the most valuable trade assets in the league: an expected lottery pick from the New Orleans Pelicans in a draft night deal.

“I think they’ll be one of the best teams in the East and they utilized every tool in their toolbox,” one executive said.

Denver also received a lot of credit for giving Jokic some much-needed help off the bench in the form of Bruce Brown Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas, plus getting Cameron Johnson from the Brooklyn Nets for Michael Porter Jr., while Houston got credit for landing Kevin Durant in a deal with the Phoenix Suns.

Which team had the worst offseason?

New Orleans Pelicans: 9
Phoenix Suns: 4
Sacramento Kings: 2
Chicago Bulls: 1
Los Angeles Lakers: 1
Memphis Grizzlies: 1
Philadelphia 76ers: 1
Portland Trail Blazers: 1

The Pelicans more than doubled anyone else’s total, with voters not only disliking the price they paid on draft night to land Derik Queen, but also taking on Jordan Poole in exchange for C.J. McCollum’s expiring deal. “I just don’t get what they are doing,” one East executive said.

The other two teams to receive multiple votes, the Suns and Kings, were knocked for their overall direction.

“Whatever chance they may have had is gone now,” one East executive said of Phoenix.

What was the best move of the offseason?

Rockets trading for Durant: 11
Magic trading for Desmond Bane: 5
Hawks trading for the Pelicans’ draft pick: 2
Nuggets trading for Cam Johnson: 1
Lakers re-signing Doncic: 1

The biggest name to change teams this offseason was also deemed the best move of the summer by a majority of voters, as Durant going to Houston easily was the top choice.

“Their deficiency in the playoffs was not having a go-to scorer,” a West scout said, “and now they have Kevin Durant.”

The other heavy vote-getter was Orlando adding Bane, giving a team devoid of shooting in the backcourt a career 41% 3-point shooter on more than six attempts per game.

“He’s the perfect complimentary player [to] grow with their core,” a West assistant coach said.

What was the worst move of the offseason?

Pelicans trading an unprotected pick swap: 11
Trail Blazers trading for Jrue Holiday: 3
Suns waiving and stretching Bradley Beal: 3
Pacers losing Myles Turner in free agency: 1
Suns trading for Mark Williams: 1
Kings signing Dennis Schroder: 1

The Pelicans sending out an unprotected swap in the next year to move up 10 spots back in June’s draft took the top spot handily, but the two other moves to receive more than a single vote were Portland trading for Jrue Holiday and the Suns choosing to waive and stretch the nearly $100 million on Bradley Beal’s contract.

“I just don’t get what they are trying to do,” a West assistant coach said of Portland’s Holiday trade. “You can’t get enough time for all of their guards.”

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What was the most surprising move of the offseason?

Turner to Bucks/Lillard waive and stretch: 16
Hawks signing Alexander-Walker: 1
Knicks firing coach Tom Thibodeau: 1
Trail Blazers trading for Holiday: 1
Jonathan Kuminga still with the Warriors: 1

The combination of the Milwaukee Bucks signing Myles Turner, and doing so by waiving and stretching the remaining $112 million on Damian Lillard‘s contract, easily took the top spot, given the record amount of dead money the Bucks now have on their books and the fact that Turner was widely expected to return to Indiana.

What was the biggest trend of the offseason?

Teams trying to avoid the aprons/financial flexibility: 7
Teams prioritizing size: 6
Teams prioritizing youth and depth: 4
Free agency continuing to be a nonfactor: 1
Restricted free agents getting squeezed: 1
Waiving and stretching contracts: 1

For the third straight year, the dreaded “second apron” was named as the biggest trend of the offseason, with several voters pointing to teams either making sure they got below it if they aren’t going to be contenders (the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns) or having to work around it (the Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks).

Almost as many people, however, pointed to the push across the league to seek out size, after the idea of “small ball” had dominated the conversation for a decade.

“Size matters now,” an Eastern Conference scout said, while also echoing the idea several others pointed to about offensive rebounding mattering more than it has in a long time. And, after seeing the Thunder and Pacers reach the NBA Finals on the backs of youth and depth, several people across the league pointed to teams eschewing veterans for youth and depth as a key takeaway from the summer.

Who will win each conference and the NBA title?

East

Cleveland Cavaliers: 9
New York Knicks: 7
Atlanta Hawks: 2
Milwaukee Bucks: 1
Orlando Magic: 1

West

Oklahoma City Thunder: 18
Denver Nuggets: 2

NBA title

Oklahoma City Thunder: 18
Denver Nuggets: 2

It’s no surprise that the Thunder, coming off winning the NBA title and having a roster with only two players over 27 years old, is the heavy favorite to win the title. But while Denver received a couple votes, due to the combination of Nikola Jokic and that souped-up bench unit, the fact that there wasn’t a single vote for an East team to win the title accurately reflects the gulf between the two conferences.

And while no one was picked to win the title out of the East, virtually everyone struggled to come up with a team they felt good enough about to come out of the conference. For some, it was because they felt the Knicks and Cavs were evenly matched. Some went with New York because of its toughness and depth, while others went with Cleveland because of its perceived higher top-end talent and better defensive versatility led by reigning DPOY Evan Mobley.

But the perceived issues with both of those top contenders is what led to several others to tap either the Hawks, Bucks or Magic as their choice.

“I think those guys fit together really well now,” one East executive said of Orlando. “And I don’t have as much faith as everyone else does in Cleveland and New York.”

“They have a lot of what-ifs,” one West assistant coach said of the Hawks, “but Trae [Young] is really good and compared to a lot of his peers, he has had real playoff success that he doesn’t get enough credit for.”

And for one West assistant, the choice was simple. “I’m just betting on Giannis, and against the rest of the East.”