NHL goal scorer picks, predictions, best bets for Saturday, March 22: Model backs Alex Ovechkin in NHL props

Washington Capitals legend Alex Ovechkin will continue his quest to become the NHL’s all-time leading scorer when Washington hosts defending champion Florida on Saturday evening. Ovechkin scored his 888th career goal in a win over Philadelphia on Thursday night, moving within seven goals back of passing Wayne Gretsky’s career record of 894. He has 32 career hat tricks, and his 33rd would move him even closer to Gretskty’s record as the regular season winds down. Washington (-102) vs. Florida (5 p.m. ET) is one of 14 games on Saturday’s NHL schedule, which includes a showdown between Vegas and Detroit at 8 p.m. ET. That Capitals vs. Panthers game is listed as pick’em at DraftKings Sportsbook.

SportsLine’s proven computer model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. It is on a 28-11 roll on its top-rated puck-line picks this season, returning more than $1,400 of profit for $100 bettors. Below are the model’s best NHL goal scorer picks to include in NHL prop bets.

Capitals LW Alex Ovechkin to score (+140 at FanDuel)

Model prediction: Ovechkin scores 0.64 goals, bringing value at these odds

The spotlight remains on Ovechkin as he chases Gretzky’s record, pulling with seven goals of tying the all-time mark earlier this week. He gave Washington a 1-0 lead in the first period of that game against Philadelphia, helping the Capitals clinch a playoff spot. Ovechkin needs seven more goals in the final 13 regular-season games, and Washington’s commanding Eastern Conference lead allows the Capitals to focus on the record.  

Lightning C Brayden Point to score (+194 at FanDuel)

Model prediction: Point scores 0.52 goals, bringing value at these odds

Point had a power-play assist in a win over the Flyers on Monday, ending a four-game drought without a goal or assist. He has gone eight straight games without scoring a goal, but he still has 32 goals overall this season. Point is facing an Utah team that has allowed at least four goals in four of its last seven games. SportsLine’s model thinks this is an ideal time for Point to break his goal-less drought. FanDuel Sportsbook is currently offering the best odds on Point to score at +194.

Canadiens RW Cole Caufield to score (+180 at FanDuel)

Model prediction: Caufield scores 0.53 goals, bringing value at these odds

Caufield was scoreless despite three shots on goal in an overtime loss to the Islanders on Thursday, leaving him without a goal in back-to-back games for the first time since early February. He has scored in six of his last 10 games and has registered at least three shots on goal in six of his last eight games. The model projects Caufield to score 0.53 goals on Saturday night, making this a valuable price to target.  

Maple Leafs RW William Nylander to score (+190 at Bet365)

Model prediction: Nylander scores 0.55 goals, bringing value at these odds

Nylander leads Toronto with a whopping 38 goals this season, which ranks second in the NHL behind Leon Draisaitle. The 28-year-old had two assists against the Rangers on Thursday, but he failed to score for the second game in a row. Nylander has been consistently peppering the net though, registering at least three shots on goal in five straight games. He has scored in two of those outings, and the model expects him to get back in the scoring column on Saturday. Bet365 has the best price on this prop at +190. 

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