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Just over one year ago, the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves made a rare blockbuster move that involved seven players, including All-Stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Julius Randle. The trade was one of only two deals before the 2024-2025 regular season, and the next trade did not happen until Dec. 15.
The Feb. 5 trade deadline is four months away, and though the 118 players who signed contracts this offseason cannot be traded now, it is never too early to break down the top-14 teams to watch, as well as some quick-hit notes around the league.
We start with the Golden State Warriors, who are looking to extend the championship window of 37-year-old Stephen Curry.
The closing window to compete for a championship
The Warriors were staring at an undesirable position — before signing Jonathan Kuminga on Sept. 30.
Golden State had the first-round draft capital — the Warriors can trade up to the maximum four first-round picks and also swap in the next seven years — to make a significant trade during the season. But, unlike the sizable contracts available in the Jimmy Butler trade last February (Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schroder, Kyle Anderson), that did not exist this season. Curry, Butler and Draymond Green combine to earn more than 75% of the Warriors’ team salary cap, leaving Golden State without enough salary to cobble together a deal if an impact player were available. The Warriors’ three next highest-paid players — Moses Moody, Buddy Hield and Brandin Podziemski — have a total salary equal to $24 million.
Golden State benefits in multiple ways with Kuminga not signing the $8 million qualifying offer. Although he can’t be traded until Jan. 15, the Warriors now have a $22.5 million trade asset. By waiving his one-year Bird restriction, Golden State can also trade Kuminga without his approval.
But there are financial consequences with the new Kuminga contract and signing Al Horford to the tax midlevel exception.
The Warriors are now hard-capped at the second apron — they are $2 million below — and not allowed to take back more salary in a trade and aggregate contracts if it leaves them over the second apron.
The two timelines
Boston accomplished its offseason goal in the short term by getting under the second apron thanks to trading starters Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics have also reduced their payroll by $300 million since June 15.
The financial savings and Jayson Tatum rehabbing from a torn Achilles injury suffered in the playoffs didn’t deter Boston from taking a proactive approach to its roster this season.
Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens dismissed the idea that this season would be a rebuilding year, despite the uncertainty of Tatum’s return.
“That’s not going to be part of the lexicon [on rebuilding] in our building, and that’s the way we’re going to focus moving forward,” Stevens said this summer. Even with Tatum out, the Celtics still have two All-Stars in Jaylen Brown and Derrick White. Those three players are all under contract through at least the 2028-29 season.
How Boston adds to its roster for the future — or subtracts in the short term — could come down to Anfernee Simons, whom the franchise acquired in the Holiday deal with Portland. Simons has a $27.7 million expiring contract.
Boston remains $12 million over the luxury tax, and is projected to pay a $39 million penalty. The Celtics are also a first-apron team, and not allowed to take back more money in a trade.
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No organization exemplifies the two timelines more than the Lakers.
The present is a roster with LeBron James, the 23-year veteran, entering the last year of his contract (with a no-trade clause) and the uncertainty of the future. Besides James, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, Maxi Kleber and Austin Reaves can all become free agents next summer. The four players (excluding James) give the Lakers over $50 million in expiring contracts.
The future is Luka Doncic, who is under contract through at least the 2027-28 season (he has a player option in 2028-29), and financial flexibility in the next two offseasons to build a roster around the generational player. The Lakers could have up to $50 million in cap space next offseason, and nearly double that amount the following summer.
But can the Lakers afford to be patient, waiting until next summer with James on the roster?
As sources confirmed to ESPN’s Dave McMenamin in September, the Lakers are open to trading for a player on a contract that extends beyond 2026.
The Lakers can trade a 2031 or 2032 first-round pick, and have the right to swap firsts in five seasons.
The future of Giannis
Bucks GM Jon Horst has exhausted all options while attempting to build a contending team around Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Horst traded for Kyle Kuzma at the trade deadline and then — at the expense of Damian Lillard and Pat Connaughton — signed Myles Turner, Bobby Portis, Kevin Porter Jr., Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent Jr., Gary Harris, Taurean Prince, Jericho Sims, Cole Anthony, Chris Livingston and finally, Antetokounmpo’s brother Thanasis.
The acquisitions left Milwaukee with no second-round picks and only one first in either 2031 or 2032 available to trade. The Bucks also have $20 million in dead cap space over the next five seasons after waiving Lillard.
The roster turnover has quieted rumors about Antetokounmpo’s future — at least for now.
“I deal with what I have in front of me,” Antetokounmpo said at media day. “I think it’s a great team. It’s a sleeper, and a lot of people might not take it seriously, but I think we are a very, very dangerous team.”
If the Bucks start slowly and fall out of contention, Antetokounmpo’s future will again surface. After all, Antetokounmpo said he did not remember a conversation he had with owner Wes Edens regarding whether he was committed to Milwaukee this summer.
If Antetokounmpo gets restless, Milwaukee will have to wait until at least Dec. 15 to add to the roster.
“The same thing I’ve been saying my whole career, I want to be in a team that allows me and gives me a chance to win a championship,” said Antetokounmpo, who is sitting out the start of training camp after testing positive for COVID-19. “I think it’s a disservice to basketball, just to the game, to not want it to compete at a high level, to want your season to end in April.”
Since the Bucks signed 11 players this offseason, only four players on the roster (Giannis, Kuzma, AJ Green and Tyler Smith) are trade-eligible. The restrictions for the free agents signed get lifted in mid-December, however.
Issues with the apron
The season-ending injury to Fred VanVleet on Sept. 22 should signal Houston as one of the more active teams in early-season trade discussions.
Though the Rockets have appealing draft assets (they have the right to swap firsts with Brooklyn as well as a Phoenix unprotected first in 2027), first-apron restrictions and a lack of tradeable contracts likely have Houston in a holding pattern.
The Rockets are $1.2 million below the first apron, and not allowed to sign a replacement. They are also not allowed to use more than 100% of the traded player exception if it leaves them over the apron.
The first apron is not the only restriction hindering Houston, however.
The eight players Houston signed this summer — Steven Adams, Dorian Finney-Smith, VanVleet, Aaron Holiday, Jae’Sean Tate, Jeff Green, Josh Okogie and Clint Capela — cannot be traded until mid-December. Holiday and Tate have the right to approve any trade, while Jabari Smith Jr. signed a rookie extension and has a poison-pill restriction.
With nine players off the board, Houston is left with starters Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson and reserves Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason.
Eason is eligible to sign an extension up until Oct. 20, and is a name to watch if a new contract is not reached. He will be a restricted free agent next summer.
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The Knicks will make a trade for the second straight October.
But, unlike the Towns blockbuster last season, the trade will likely be on a smaller scale.
Because they improved their bench in the offseason by signing Guerschon Yabusele to the tax mid-level exception, they are hard-capped at the second apron. The restriction will force New York to trade either one of its draft picks from last June (Tyler Kolek or Pacome Dadiet) if the goal is to retain veterans Malcolm Brogdon and Landry Shamet. Despite being over the first apron, the Knicks are allowed to include cash in any trade and have up to eight second-round picks available. Trading Dadiet’s $2.8 million salary would allow New York to sign a 15th player during the season.
As for a big-picture approach to the roster, because New York is over the first apron, it’s not allowed to use more than 100% of the traded player exception. The Knicks are also top-heavy in salary, with five players (Jalen Brunson, Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart) combining to earn 70% of the salary cap. They have only one tradeable first (from Washington in 2026), but only if it falls outside of the top-eight.
Bridges signed an extension in the offseason and is not trade-eligible until Feb. 1.
One player to watch is Mitchell Robinson. He has been extension-eligible since July and, without a new contract, will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. If the Knicks keep the roster intact and re-sign Robinson, New York is a projected second-apron team next season.
The new front offices
If the recent offseason was any indication, new head of basketball operations Ben Tenzer realizes the task of putting a championship roster around Nikola Jokic.
Named Denver’s executive vice president of basketball operations in June, Tenzer and his front office have already made an impact, trading Michael Porter Jr. to Brooklyn for Cameron Johnson, then improving a much-maligned bench by adding Jonas Valanciunas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown.
The addition of Johnson cost the Nuggets their lone tradeable first-round pick, and though their draft assets are diminished (the only pick they can trade is their 2032 second), they are better balanced contractually and financially.
Denver is not hard-capped at either apron, and has 13 players earning between $2.2 million and $23 million. The franchise also has two trade exceptions of $6.9 million and $5.2 million.
One question that should be answered during the regular season: Is ownership willing to go into the luxury tax for a fourth straight season?
Denver is $402,000 above the luxury tax and has an open roster spot.
For a new front office that potentially traded away next year’s lottery pick, there are no expectations this season.
“No, I’ve not put that expectation on anyone,” president of \basketball operations Joe Dumars said before the start of training camp. “It wasn’t like, ‘OK, we made this trade, I expect to make the playoffs.’ That’s shortsighted to me.”
The controversial trade — sending the most-favorable 2026 first-round pick of their own to Milwaukee and the rights to Asa Newell to Atlanta for the rights to Derik Queen — showed that Dumars is willing to be aggressive in how he builds the roster while evaluating how it has been built around Zion Williamson in the past.
“I know he’s going to hold me to a really high standard, and if I slip up or anything,” Williamson said of Dumars.
Williamson, the former No. 1 pick, has played in 46% of regular-season games since being drafted in 2019 and has never appeared in the playoffs. He has three years and $127 million left on his contract — the last two years are not guaranteed.
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The Suns are in an organizational reset under new GM Brian Gregory.
Though still limited in draft assets to trade (they have no firsts and only three seconds), the Suns are allowed to take back more money in a trade and, more importantly, aggregate contracts for the first time under the apron rules.
The aggregation rule allows Phoenix to combine the contracts of Grayson Allen and Nick Richards, for example, even if the salary taken back is less.
Since trading Durant and waiving and stretching Bradley Beal, the Suns’ roster has no player other than Devin Booker earning more than $34 million.
Last season, Durant, Beal and Durant combined to earn 71% of the Suns’ salary cap.
Expect the early part of the season to be more of an evaluation period for GM Scott Perry.
The new Kings’ general manager inherited a roster with some returning players — Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Keegan Murray and Malik Monk — while also adding Dennis Schroder and naming Doug Christie the permanent coach.
Whether DeRozan fits alongside LaVine and if Monk can revert to one of the best sixth men in the league will be two storylines to watch as we get closer to the February trade deadline.
In over 1,000 possessions, Sacramento gave up 121.7 points per 100 possessions with LaVine and DeRozan on the court together, per Cleaning the Glass.
LaVine ($47.5 million and $48.9 million) and DeRozan ($24.6 million and $25.7 million) have two years left on their contracts. The second season for DeRozan is partially guaranteed.
For the first time in his career, Monk averaged more than 30 minutes per game but also shot below 33% from 3 for the first time since 2019-20. He has three years left on his contract ($18.8 million, $21.2 million and $21.6 million).
For the first time since the 2012-13 season, the Raptors are not under the leadership of Masai Ujiri.
The former executive of the year and architect of the 2019 championship team has been replaced by his understudy, Bobby Webster.
Webster takes over a franchise that has missed the playoffs in four out of the past five seasons, including the past three in a row. For a team that has won a combined 55 games in the past two seasons, the Raptors are also a projected $3 million over the tax, a topic Webster addressed before the start of training camp.
“The likelihood that this team is the exact same team by the end of the year is probably zero,” Webster said.
He also added that there is no financial pressure from ownership because Toronto resides in one of the biggest and most lucrative NBA markets.
If Toronto trims payroll or adds to the roster, do not expect that to occur until Webster can evaluate the roster in totality. The Raptors traded for Brandon Ingram in February, but the forward did not play in a game because of an ankle injury. Toronto’s other four starters, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl all played fewer than 66 games.
The wild-card teams
It would not be a trade guide — even if it is early season — without including the Mavericks.
The Dallas front office, led by GM Nico Harrison, continues to be the biggest wild card of any team.
If you want confirmation, go back to last February when Dallas traded Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first. Since taking over as the Mavericks GM in June 2021, Harrison has made 16 trades, including seven in the regular season.
Harrison has made at least one trade in four straight regular seasons.
The Mavericks have the contracts (nine, including Klay Thompson, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Caleb Martin, Christie, Jaden Hardy, Russell, Dereck Lively II, Dwight Powell earning between $4 million to $17 million) and first-round picks (the Lakers’ 2029 first and their own in 2031 or 2032) to make another big regular-season trade.
Because Russell was signed to the tax midlevel exception (he cannot be traded until Dec. 15), Dallas is hard-capped at the second apron (currently $1.3 million below) and not allowed to take back more money in a trade. The Mavericks are also not allowed to aggregate contracts if it leaves them over the apron.
P.J. Washington signed an extension and is ineligible to be traded.
The health of Joel Embiid and Paul George once again will play a role in Philadelphia’s activity in trade discussions.
If the 76ers struggle again this season, cutting costs can be an option again.
Last February, they dropped below the tax by trading Reggie Jackson, KJ Martin and Caleb Martin.
Philadelphia is $7 million over the tax and has the expiring contracts of Quentin Grimes ($8.7 million), Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8.4 million) and Andre Drummond ($5 million). Grimes cannot be traded until Jan. 15, and has the right to void any trade.
Improving the roster is challenging, however.
Other than the $24 million in expiring contracts, Philadelphia is top-heavy with contracts. Embiid, George and Tyrese Maxey will earn $145 million this season.
The cap space team
We had labeled Brooklyn as the one team that controlled the offseason because of the cap space.
Though the space has shrunk with the trades of Michael Porter Jr., Terance Mann, Haywood Highsmith and Kobe Bufkin, Brooklyn still has over $13 million in room and its $8.8 million room midlevel exception (the two cannot be combined) to be active in trade discussions.
The Nets have preliminarily reached the minimum salary requirement (a team has to spend 90% of the salary cap by the first day of the regular season), but are still a team to monitor before the start of the season.
Brooklyn could fall under the minimum salary floor by waiving Jalen Wilson, Tyrese Martin and Drew Timme. The Nets already have 15 players on guaranteed contracts, and the three aforementioned players have a combined $6.2 million in non-guaranteed salary.
If the three are waived before Oct. 20, Brooklyn would need to trade for a player earning more than $4 million.
More trade notes
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There were 25 trades during the 2024-25 regular season — 20 of those trades happened in February.
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The Cavaliers are the only team over the second apron. Cleveland is not allowed to send cash in a trade, use more than 100% of the traded player exception or aggregate contracts sent out if the post-transaction leaves it over the second apron.
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Boston, Minnesota and Phoenix were over the second apron in 2024-25. Each of those teams is not allowed to trade its 2032 first-round pick.
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Starting on the first day of the regular season, teams over the first or second apron are not allowed to sign a player waived who had a preexisting salary greater than $14.1 million
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The Hornets, Jazz and Wizards are teams to watch either in a three-team trade or a deal taking back salary. Charlotte and Washington each has its $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception to use in a trade. Utah has an $18.4 million trade exception.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and P.J. Washington are the only players ineligible to be traded. Gilgeous-Alexander signed a supermax extension and has a one-year restriction. Washington’s six-month restriction for extending falls beyond the Feb. 5 deadline.
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Five players (Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., Nikola Jovic and Paolo Banchero) have signed rookie extensions. Each player now has a poison-pill restriction. Smith can still be traded, but his incoming salary counts as $22.4 million and outgoing $12.4 million.
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A player who signs a free agent contract in the offseason before Sept. 15 cannot be traded until Dec. 15. If a player signs with his prior team (Kuminga with the Warriors, for example) and his salary is greater than 120% of last year, he cannot be traded until Jan. 15.
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LeBron James and Damian Lillard are the two players with a no-trade clause. A player who re-signs with his team for one season or two but with an option and establishes early or Bird rights has the right to void any trade. Quentin Grimes is the most recent example. If Grimes is traded, he no longer has Bird rights.
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There has been a trend of players reducing or eliminating the trade bonus in their contracts. Since last February, four players (Anthony Davis, Zach LaVine, Kyle Kuzma and Jalen Green) have either modified or eliminated the bonus owed as a result of the trade. This season, 41 players have a trade bonus in their contract. However, nine players’ (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Scottie Barnes, Jaylen Brown, Stephen Curry, Darius Garland, Nikola Jokic, Evan Mobley, Ja Morant, Jayson Tatum) bonuses would be voided because they exceed the maximum salary allowed.
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The Indiana Pacers are the only team that has been granted a disabled player exception. The exception is rewarded if a player cannot play through June 15. The exception is the lesser of 50% of the player’s salary for that season or the amount equal to the non-tax midlevel exception. Indiana is allowed to sign or trade for a player in the last year of their contract and must have a roster spot. The deadline to apply for the exception is January, and the last day to use it is March 10.
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The Celtics have a $22.5 million trade exception, the largest of any team. The exception was created after July 1, allowing Boston to use it despite being over the first apron. Teams over either apron are not allowed to use a preexisting exception from the prior season. The Pelicans, Miami Heat, Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks have exceptions greater than $10 million.