Quick surface expected for Arc de Triomphe in boost to Japanese challengers

Perhaps it is climate change or maybe it is just a blip but, for the second time in three seasons, the word “bon” could well appear in the going description at Longchamp when the best middle-distance horses in Europe and Japan gather in the Bois de Boulogne on Sunday for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the showpiece event of the European Flat season.

Seventeen horses remain in this year’s Arc after the penultimate declaration stage on Monday, while Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk, unbeaten in four races this season including the Oaks and Irish Oaks, is expected to be added to the field at the supplementary entry stage on Wednesday.

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An equally significant number ahead of the race on Sunday, though, is the reading of 7.2 on the GoingStick at Longchamp, which equates to “bon souple”, or good-to-soft, ahead of the six-day run-in to Arc day with little or no rain in the forecast.

Forecasts can change in an instant, of course, not least in the early autumn, and Arc day itself 12 months ago was a mix of downpours and dazzling sunshine. For the moment at least, however, the chance of something adjacent to summer ground this weekend will be welcome news for connections of a three-strong Japanese challenge – Croix Du Nord, Byzantine Dream and Alohi Alii – but perhaps less so for backers of Aidan O’Brien’s second-string, Los Angeles, who was third home on soft ground 12 months ago, behind Bluestocking and Aventure.

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O’Brien has already racked up 19 Group One wins this season after True Love’s success in the Cheveley Park Stakes on Saturday, and he has entries in all eight of the Group One events over the two-day Arc meeting. Minnie Hauk, who has Group One-winning form on both good-to-soft and good-to-firm ground this year, is vying for favouritism with Christophe Ferland’s Aventure with British bookmakers at around 4-1.

“Everything has gone well with them since their last runs,” O’Brien said of his two runners over the weekend. “Christophe [Soumillon, the stable’s temporary number one rider with Ryan Moore sidelined by injury] rode Minnie Hauk during the week and he was very happy.

“Los Angeles has made great improvement since his last run and if the ground gets soft it would bring him right into it, he’s a big powerhouse.”

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A fractured femur, which was diagnosed in late August after troubling him for several weeks, has forced Moore on to the sidelines for the remainder of the year, but also offers Soumillon an unexpected chance to add a third Arc to his record, after wins on Zarkava and Dalakhani in 2003 and 2008 respectively.

Soumillon has been such a force in the saddle over the past 20 years, both in France and worldwide, that it is a little jarring to realise that his last Arc victory was 17 years ago. But then even O’Brien, who has saddled no fewer than 11 Derby winners at Epsom over the course of his career, has just two Arc wins to his name, with Dylan Thomas and Found in 2007 and 2016 respectively.

O’Brien’s relative lack of success in the Arc is a reminder of how difficult it can be to beat the French on their home turf, and adds further lustre to André Fabre’s astonishing record of eight wins.

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Fabre still has two live runners – Sosie and Cualificar – in the race on Sunday, while the British challenge is expected to run to no more than three horses, with Kalpana (Andrew Balding), Giavellotto (Marco Botti) and Estrange (David O’Meara) still among the entries.

“Aventure’s win in the Prix Vermeille [in early September] was a real relief,” Ferland said on Monday. “We had really been waiting for that victory. Before that, she had raced four times at this level … [and] she was only beaten by horses of the calibre of Bluestocking, the Arc winner, or Calandagan [the 2025 King George winner at Ascot]. It was a major step in her career, though we naturally have more goals ahead.

“Aventure performs well on soft ground as well as on heavier going. It might rain a little before the race, but I’m not obsessively checking the weather – it’s something we simply can’t control. Nights are cool and humid now, so the track won’t dry as quickly as it does in summer.”

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Ayr 2.00 Penelope’s Sister 2.30 Jeddaal 3.00 Cisco Disco 3.30 Tactical Plan 4.00 Lima Sierra 4.30 Dandy Magic 5.05 Makaiah

Sedgefield 2.07 Roadshow 2.37 Ammes 3.07 Moonshine Man 3.37 Zamond 4.07 Harel Du Marais 4.37 Siouxfonic

Bath 2.22 Blue Hero 2.52 Jimmy Mark 3.22 Fact Or Fable 3.52 King Of Speed 4.22 Blue Courvoisier 4.52 Cressida Wildes 5.25 Geeman 5.55 On Edge

Newcastle 5.00 Hashtagnotions 5.30 Saratoga Gold 6.00 Hello Goodbye (nb) 6.30 Golden Conqueror 7.00 Fanjove 7.30 Second Fiddle (nap) 8.00 Penelope Valentine 8.30 A Lady Forever

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There were just two British-trained runners in the 16-strong field last year, when Ralph Beckett’s Bluestocking came home in front. Estrange, though, would need some rain to show her best form, while Kalpana, the ante-post favourite for the Arc after finishing second in the King George in July, was a disappointing favourite behind Giavellotto in her prep run at Kempton this month.

Arc betting after latest declarations 4-1 Minnie Hauk, 9-2 Aventure, 8-1 Croix Du Nord, 10-1 Byzantine Dream, Sosie, 16-1 Gezora, Kalpana, Cualificar, Daryz, Aloha Alii, 25-1 bar.